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【行业研报纪要】观点速递:需求有接力,煤价有动力

2026-04-02 08:43:14

【行业研报纪要】观点速递:需求有接力,煤价有动力

基本面超预期来自需求端

需求端： ①副高强势，华南高温持续，日耗不降反增，电煤需求超预期强势；②非电韧性，铁水维持240万吨高位/化工用煤维持高增，支撑结构性需求超预期；③冬储需求释放在即，北方入冬时间早于预期，或将接力驱动煤价上涨。

供给端： “反内卷”预期有增无减，叠加强降雨影响，主产区长短期供给或受限。叠加大秦线检修供给边际收窄，煤价上行动力较强。

投资建议：

再提示配置机遇，关注弹性标的。今年以来煤炭板块累计下跌幅度较大，机构持仓徘徊在低位，筹码结构健康，交易并不拥挤。因此，交易面与基本面共振，弹性推荐【兖矿】【山煤】【晋控】【陕煤】【潞安】【淮北】【平煤】【山焦】，【神华】【中煤】【新集】【淮河】有望受益。

【郑重声明】本文所有内容均不构成任何投资建议。本文仅是个人随心笔记及个人看法，不具有任何指导作用，亦不代表笔者所在机构观点，不具有任何指导作用。据此操作，风险自负。

聚焦基本面投机，日常分享精选纪要，个股研究与策略思考。欢迎关注。

本文资料来源于公司公告，新闻，机构公开研报等，其内容仅作为自己研究整理，不构成投资建议。如有侵权请联系删除。

日行一善，点个在看~感激！

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基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

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